6th annual conference
        Advances in Reservoir Technology
        Edinburgh International Conference Centre
        20/21 February 1997


        Organised by IBC Energy Division and PSTI

        Technical Briefing

        19th February 1997

        Initiatives for Managing Uncertainty

        The aim of this meeting is to provide a briefing on new initiatives in Uncertainty Management. It is intended for technical managers with the emphasis on discussing the implication and nature of uncertainty, the approaches to managing this uncertainty, and how these approaches might be implemented.

        We distinguish uncertainty management from uncertainty prediction and quantification. Uncertainty management can incorporate prediction but management involves other approaches and issues.

        The main issues the briefing will address are:

        • the full and diverse nature of uncertainty and what it means to manage it
        • a review of the awareness, utilisation and application of uncertainty handling techniques in the oil industry from the PSTI Juniper Programmeís survey of current practices
        • the central role of human decision making in determining strategy and strategic planning - particularly with regards to use of evidence
        • the limitations of prediction and quantification of uncertainty together with explanation of the alternatives
        • the importance of appropriateness and dependability in decision making as opposed to truth and prediction
        • the value of case-based reasoning for reservoir appraisal and development and the approach of life cycle analysis for decision support

        PROGRAMME

        09:00 Registration

        09:30 Introduction - Robert Johnson Director PSTI

        09:40 What Does it Mean to Manage Uncertainty? - Dr John Davis Reader in Hydroinformatics University of Bristol

        10:10 Review of Current Practices of Handling and Managing Uncertainty in the Oil Industry - Dr Alistair Fletcher PSTI

        Discussion

        10:50 Coffee

        11:15 Strategic Decisions and Strategy - the Central Human Dimension - Professor Keith Stenning Director Human Communication Research Centre, University of Edinburgh

        Dr Gordon Edwards - Consultant Technology Management (formerly of Shell)

        Dr John Davis - University of Bristol

        12:15 Implication of Uncertainty Calculation in Statutory Reserve Definitions

        Claude McMichael - Consultant (Formerly of Mobil, USA)

        12:35 Discussion

        13:00 Lunch

        14:00 Limits to Prediction - and Alternative Management Approaches

        Dr Andy Tilbrook

        New Technology Coordinator

        Amerada Hess

        Professor Juan Watterson

        University of Liverpool

        Dr Alistair Fletcher

        PSTI

        Discussion

        15:00 Coffee

        15:10 Case-Based Reasoning - Relevant Learning from the Past

        Dr Martin Peersmann

        TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience

        Peter Dromgoole

        Director, Consultant Geophysicist

        Appro Consultants

        Discussion

        15:50 Life Cycles and Uncertainty

        Dr Andy Tilbrook

        Amerada Hess

        Martin Peersmann

        TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience

        17:00 Discussion

        17:30 Close of Meeting

        Click here to return to Advances in Reservoir Technology Conference page

        Last Updated 17/12/96